CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. — A newly discovered asteroid has a small chance of striking Earth in 2032, according to space agency officials. Scientists have placed the likelihood of an impact at slightly over 1%, with NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies director, Paul Chodas, emphasizing that the 99% chance of a miss means there is no immediate cause for concern. However, Chodas added that the asteroid deserves close monitoring.
The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, was first spotted in December 2024 by a telescope located in Chile. Initial estimates suggest the object measures between 130 to 330 feet (40 to 100 meters) across. While its current trajectory takes it away from Earth, the asteroid’s orbit around the sun is still being studied, with the goal of refining its path and reducing the risk of a potential collision.
As part of the monitoring efforts, scientists are utilizing some of the world’s most advanced telescopes. Over the next few months, astronomers will continue to track the asteroid’s movements, which will help improve predictions. After this period, the asteroid will fade from view, and will not be visible again until it passes by Earth once more in 2028.
The asteroid came closest to Earth on Christmas Day 2024, passing within approximately 500,000 miles (800,000 kilometers) of the planet — about twice the distance between Earth and the moon. It was discovered just two days later, raising the possibility that it may have been observed in sky surveys from 2016. If scientists can locate its signature in older imagery, they may be able to further refine the impact probability.
While the odds of an asteroid impact of this size are extremely low, such events are not entirely rare. The European Space Agency notes that Earth is struck by asteroids of similar size roughly every few thousand years, with the potential to cause significant damage. As a result, the asteroid 2024 YR4 now tops ESA’s risk list.
The potential impact would occur on December 22, 2032, but it is still too early to determine exactly where it might strike. Currently, no other large asteroids are known to pose a similar level of risk, as all other major asteroids have an impact probability of less than 1%.
NASA and other space agencies will continue to observe and analyze the asteroid to ensure that any potential risks are identified and mitigated well in advance.
