Global Land Turning to Drylands: Alarming Expansion Threatens Agriculture and Livelihoods
In a stark warning about the planet’s changing climate, a UN study has revealed that nearly 40% of Earth’s land is now classified as dryland—a third larger than India. These regions, characterized by minimal rainfall and difficult agricultural conditions, have expanded significantly in the past three decades, with widespread implications for global food security, water availability, and biodiversity.
Rising Aridity: A Permanent Shift
Unlike droughts, which are temporary periods of low rainfall, aridity represents a permanent climatic shift that transforms humid regions into barren landscapes. According to Ibrahim Thiaw, executive secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD):
“Droughts end. When an area’s climate becomes drier, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost.”
The study, conducted by the UN Science Policy Interface (SPI), highlights that 75% of the world’s land experienced drier conditions over the last 30 years, a change unlikely to reverse.
Economic and Human Impact
Economic Losses:
- Between 1990 and 2015, Africa’s GDP dropped by 12% due to increasing aridity. Forecasts predict worse losses, with Africa expected to lose 16% and Asia 7% of their GDP in the next half-decade.
Agriculture Under Threat:
- Maize yields in Kenya are projected to halve by 2050 if current trends persist. Globally, two-thirds of the land will store less water by mid-century, significantly reducing crop viability.
Population at Risk:
- As of 2020, 30% of the global population—about 2.3 billion people—lived in drylands. By 2100, this figure could double if carbon emissions remain unchecked, affecting vulnerable communities disproportionately.
Saudi Arabia Hosts Global Talks
A global conference under the UNCCD is currently underway in Riyadh, where delegates are discussing solutions to halt land degradation and restore arid areas. However, Saudi Arabia, despite hosting the talks, has been criticized for its reluctance to address the role of climate change in desertification.
Barron Orr, chief scientist at UNCCD, stressed the link between fossil fuel consumption and rising aridity:
“Burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world, with potentially catastrophic impacts affecting access to water.”
What’s Driving Desertification?
While climate change remains the primary culprit, other factors such as poor farming practices, soil erosion, overextraction of water, and destruction of vegetation are exacerbating the crisis.
Praveena Sridhar, chief technical officer of the Save Soil campaign, noted:
“Intensive agriculture is the leading driver of land and soil degradation, fueling biodiversity loss, carbon sequestration decline, and worsening floods, droughts, and wildfires.”
Call to Action
Experts emphasize that the crisis is not insurmountable, but immediate action is critical.
Mark Maslin, professor of Earth system science at University College London, outlined key solutions:
- Curb Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Reducing carbon output will slow climate change and global aridification.
- Sustainable Practices: Investing in sustainable agriculture, water management, reforestation, and rewilding can mitigate damage.
- Education and Governance: Awareness campaigns and good governance at local and national levels are essential to address the crisis effectively.
Kate Gannon from the Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics warned of the human toll:
“Rising aridity deepens poverty, forces over-exploitation of fragile resources, and accelerates land degradation, creating a vicious cycle of resource scarcity, water insecurity, and diminished agricultural potential.”
Conclusion: A Tipping Point for Humanity
The increasing aridity of the world’s lands is a profound challenge for global agriculture, water security, and biodiversity. With billions of people already affected and the potential for further displacement and food insecurity, addressing desertification is not only an environmental imperative but also a matter of global justice and stability.
