Canada’s Provinces React Differently to Trump’s Tariff Threats

Canada’s federal government has intensified efforts to prevent potentially catastrophic tariffs from its closest ally, as provincial leaders hint at divergent strategies in response to President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist threats.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau convened a rare in-person meeting with political rivals on Tuesday to brief them on his surprise meeting with Trump at his Florida resort over the weekend.

The Ottawa gathering included Trudeau’s former ally Jagmeet Singh of the New Democratic Party and Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader and Trudeau critic, both vying to become prime minister in the upcoming months.

Just last week, Trump threatened on social media to impose devastating levies of 25% on all goods and services from both Mexico and Canada, vowing to maintain them until the flow of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl, and “all illegal aliens” stops the “invasion of our country!”

Most Canadian provinces share a land border with the United States, with approximately 75% of the country’s exports directed to American markets. This figure varies significantly among provincial economies; the Atlantic provinces send as little as 20% south, while Alberta sends nearly 90% of its exports to the U.S., primarily oil.

If Ontario were a country, it would rank as the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner.

Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford has appealed to shared historic ties with the U.S. and nearly CA$500 billion in annual trade through a 60-second ad airing in the U.S., including on Fox News and during NFL games.

Ford has warned that the proposed tariffs would rebound on U.S. consumers, stating, “1,000% it’s gonna hurt the U.S. Nine thousand Americans wake up every single morning to build products and parts for Ontario, and customers in Ontario … My message to Trump is: Why? Why attack your closest friend, your closest ally?”

As much as 85% of Ontario’s exports head south, with the majority tied to the automotive industry.

Conversely, in British Columbia, where the economy is less dependent on U.S. trade, Premier David Eby has pledged to explore alternative export markets. Approximately half of B.C.’s exports, including softwood lumber and metallurgical coal, are directed to the U.S., according to provincial trade figures.

“We’re going to continue to do our work to expand those trading opportunities,” Eby told reporters, acknowledging the growing appeal of overseas markets for this Pacific coastal province.

Given Trump’s track record of following through on tariff threats, his latest warning prompted a rapid response in Ottawa, with Trudeau securing a meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, becoming the first G7 leader to meet the president-elect since the election.

The meeting, attended by key advisers from both sides, was described as a “very productive meeting” by Trump. Trudeau noted the discussion was an “excellent conversation”—but left without any definitive assurances.

Experts believe Canada will require a unified front to lobby U.S. officials effectively. Roland Paris, a former foreign policy adviser to Trudeau and director of the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, stated, “Coordinating Canadian leaders to conduct extensive outreach in the U.S.—which was successful during Trump’s first term—will be harder this time, due to an impending election in Canada and Trudeau being behind in the polls.”

“Discord at home complicates this advocacy campaign, creating challenges in this different political climate for the government.”

Poilievre has spent the past week suggesting Trudeau was caught off-guard by Trump’s November victory, despite federal officials assuring that contingency plans were in place for either a Trump or Kamala Harris presidency. The Conservative leader also criticized Trudeau’s emergency meeting with provincial premiers, sarcastically stating, “Justin Trudeau’s plan to save the economy? A Zoom call!” on social media.

Paris cautioned against excessive domestic politics in such a sensitive trade relationship, stating, “Party leaders in Canada will need to be careful because if they’re perceived to be working against the national interest for partisan goals, it could backfire.”